Western military intervention in Syria and Iran may trigger unrest in the Caucasus, resulting in WW III

As Western nations, especially the US, Israel and France are seriously considering intervening in Syria militarily, defence experts are warning that such a move can result in the 3rd World War.

Earlier this year, Russian nationalist politician Vladimir Zhirinovsky had warned the NATO that any attempt to overthrow the Assad regime in Syria will result in the creation of regional instability, which will trigger armed conflicts in the Middle-East and the Caucasus on a regional scale.

Zhirinovsky claimed that once the Assad regime is overthrown, the US and its allies are likely to target Iran. Azerbaijan is likely to take the situation to its advantage, to launch an offensive to re-capture the mountainous territory of Nagorno Karabakh, which it lost to Armenia in 1993. Turkey, a close military ally of Azerbaijan and a NATO member, is likely to support their Azeri kin on their attempt to regain the lost territories.

This will drag the allies of Armenia, like Russia and Iran to the war, widening the scope of the conflict. Currently, the Russian-Azerbaijani relations have hit a new low, after the latter refused Russian demands for the renewal of the lease of the Gabala Radar Station. Iran has expressed its displeasure at the growing military co-operation between Azerbaijan and the US. The Iranian authorities suspect that Azerbaijan will be one of the launching pads, apart from NATO member Turkey, for any American offensive on Iran.

Meanwhile, the Azeri authorities have tried their best to improve their relations with Iran, claiming that they will never allow the Americans to use their territory to launch strikes against Iran. The Azeris also point out that Iran was one of the main suppliers of equipment and rations to Armenia during the Karabakh war, which resulted in Azerbaijan losing close to 15% of its territory.

Although the conflict is having a religious flavour, the entry of Iran is likely to complicate the situation. The NATO is likely to stick to its policy of supporting the Muslim ethnic groups against the Orthodox Christian population, similar to what it did during the Balkan wars. Although an Islamic republic, Iran is a strong ally of Armenia and is likely to act against the Muslim members of the NATO, such as Turkey in case of any conflict over Karabakh.