Somalia War

[Kermanshahan]

As some of you may and some of you may not know, I have been following the Civil War in Somalia very closely for the last 4 years and have learnt quite a lot about it. Now I have made very detailed posts about this before but since I don't have time to go over it all again, here is an old post, which includes some maps I made and basic explenations breaking it down for you.



2006: As you see Somalia is first very divided, as the ICU defeats the ARPCT (an alliance of CIA-backed warlords) it conquers most autonomous republics like Hiiraan, Jubaland, South-West Somalia and also takes over Pirate strongholds. The TFG is besieged in the district of Baydoa (the one which is blue fromof the beginning) until Ethiopians occupy the regeon in between their border with Somalia and the city. In December 2006 Ethiopia launches a US-backed invasion and defeats the ICU. The invasions starts on December 20 and ends on January 12 as they take the Muslims' last stronghold: Ras Kamboni (which is a city located on the most South-West point of the country).
2007: The core of the ICU's military wing was a group led by notorious warlord Sheikh Adan "Eyrow", he continued operating it as an independent insurgent group called Harakat al-Shabaab Mujahedeen (HSM), more commonly known as al-Shabaab. Some elements of the ICU regrouped with leaders + non-Muslim opposition to the TFG military regime and created the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) which is led by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys (Somalia's main Muslim leader) and his protoge Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, a schoolteacher who Aweys made chairman of the ICU. Other notorious warlords such as Hassan "al-Turki" create their own insurgent groups such as the Ras Kamboni Brigades.
2008:The insurgents start seizing territory, the government has in the meanwhile lost most of it's territory to different clans and tribes operating completely independently from the government. by August they admit that majority of the country is under Muslim control again. By January 2009 Ethiopians announce their withdraw and al-Shabaab seized Baydoa, the only city the government controlled during the last 18 years. Ethiopians however, while withdrawing, seize control of the border regeon and slowly pull out. Meanwhile HSM is routed from the Central regeon by a government alligned Sufi group called Ahlu al-Sunnah Waljama'a (ASWJ).
2009: The ARS splits in two as Sheikh Sharif leads his own branch which reconciles with the government. The 225 member parliament is expanded with 200 ARS members and Sheikh Sharif is elected president by the parliament. Sheikh Aweys's branch of ARS merges with Ras Kamboni Brigades, Jabathul Islamiyah and Mu'askar Anole into Hizbul Islam (HI) and together with al-Shabaab they vow to continue fighting Sharif Ahmed's regime. At the beginning of the year pro-Ethiopian warlords controlling parts of the South West vow to re-take Baydoa but are crushed by a HSM invasion. In may an offensive get's insurgents control over most of the capital read on wiki for further information about that battle. An offensive in the central regeons leads them to seize control over all of the ARS controlled area leaving the government only in control of parts of Mogadishu.
Then in september war breaks out between HSM and HI, however HSM quickly destroys HI in the Southern and central regeons leaving them only in control of Beledweyn and Ras Kamboni. During this period however ASWJ captures parts of the Central regeon and many ex-TFG and ex-ARS warlords join ASWJ which is seen since end 2009 as the alternative tot he government. In the last picture all of the blue area shown (except in the capital) is ASWJ.
2010: ASWJ launches an offensive on Beledweyne resulting in HI allowing HSM to flood the city with their militants to defend it. ASWJ also launches an offensive on Elbur (the only town in Galgugud (ASWJ's home province) which HSM holds) but though they manage some initial succes both offensives fail. In February 2010 Hassan Turki leaves HI and joins HSM leaving HI only with some minor presence in the capital Mogadishu and Beldweyne. Later in the year HSM crackdown forces HI to surrender and merge with HSM, giving them a monopoly over the insurgency.

[Kermanshahan]

Somalia Analisys - al-Shabaab power struggle: Results

Harakat al-Shabaab Mujahedeen (HSM) has been more immune to power struggles and internal fighting than any other faction in the history of Somalia. However even HSM is not completely immune.

What happened was a power struggle between HMS's Amir: Ahmed Abdi "Godane," who hails from the breakaway state of Somaliland in the North-West and Mukhtar Robow "Abu Mansoor," the deputy leader, who was also the deputy of HSM founder Adan "Eyrow," when he was in charge of the organisation, and who was acting leader of HSM prior to the appointment of "Godane". Mukhtar Robow is said to be more of a religious nationalist, seeking to create a strong independent Somalia free of Ethiopian and American influence while Godane is said to be more of a transnationalist Islamist. Mukhtar Robow, the organisation's former spokesman also has a very public style, he was a famous leader of the ICU befor the Ethiopian invasion and often still holds press conferences. Godane on the other hand is a shadowy figure who barely appears in public, not much is known about him and there are only a few alleged pictures of him. He also goes by many different names: Moktar Ali Zubeyr, Muktar Abdirahman, Ahmad Abdi Godane, Ahmad Abdi Aw Muhammad and no-one knows for sure what is his real name.

Early tensions
At the end of last year there were claims that the power struggle had split the group up but this was all downplayed. It was also alleged that Mukhtar Robow had withdraw his fighters from Mogadishu in late 2009 which forced Godane to halt his offensive. This year tensions played up again after a failed Mogadishu offensive by HSM in which Mukhtar Robow's forces took the main part of the casualties. At the same time, Fu'ad "Shangole," alShabaab's third most influential leader (after the two I mentioned), alligned himself with Mukhtar Robow and started making statements condemning the al-Shabaab - Hizbul Islam violence.

Map of Somalia December 2009, zones of influence of Aweys (Hizbul Islam), Robow (Milatu Ibrahim) and Godane (al-Shabaab): http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi..._districts.png

HSM-HI War
Violence between the two groups had started in fall 2009 between the Ras Kamboni Brigades (one of HI's 4 factions, also it's strongest faction, militarily) battled HSM for the center of the Islamist administration: Kisimayo, during this battle the RKB was disasterously defeated and their leader Hassan Turki later joined HSM along with parts of his faction, he alligned himself with Mukhtar Robow. By early 2010 the RKB's faction (led by Sheikh Ahmed "Madobe" - who was always more sympathetic towards the secularists even during the ICU days) which remained in Hizbul Islam (HI) had been destroyed. HI's remaining two factions the ARS-A (led by Hassan Dahir Aweys) and JABISO (led by Mohamed Ibrahim Hayle) remained alligned with al-Shabaab until mid-2009 when "Godane" said they were unreliable allies and gave an ultimatum for them either to join HSM or be destroyed. Late 2010 HSM violently seized control of HI's most important city: Beledweyne (the largest city in central somalia), after this they launched an offensive whiping out HI presence in Middle Shabelle (the ARS-A's main stronghold) and soon after battled them for Bur-Hakaba, HI's last district in Bay, after which the HI administration in Luuq (their last remaining district in the south) surrendered to HSM, choosing to switch sides rather than fight. After this they surrounded HI's last stronghold, Afgoye and Hassan Dahir Aweys then surrandered and joined HSM.
What's important to know is that all of the fighting was done by Godane's group and all of the negotiations were done by Mukhtar Robow's group, particulary Mukhtar Robow himself. Shangole condenmed the fighting saying that Godane was killing fellow Muslims and boasting about it (the successes of the battles).

Merge and new Power struggle
Immediatly it became clear that HI elements joining HSM were taking sides with Robow. This also immedietly intensified the struggle between the two factions. Next to Robow being angry about his faction's losses in Mogadishu (feeling that, after they finally agreed on a joint offensive and he finally deployed forces again, Godane let him take all the losses), Shangole being angry at the attacks on HI and Sheikh Aweys (HI's chairman) and Sheikh Musa "Arale" (HI's official spokesman) alligning with Robow (making "Godane" unhappy), what really was the last straw for Robow was that one of his top commanders was killed near Kisimayo by forces of Godane.
Important -> Having support among his own Rahanwein clan in South-Central Somalia (Bay, Bakool) and having gained the backing of Hassan Turki's Ogaden, Darod-sub clan in the deep South (Jubba land + the Marehan clans in Gedo), Robow, now seeked to gain support among Hassan Dahir Aweys' Hawiye clan in Central Somalia (Middle Shabelle, Hiiraan, Galgudug - particulary in Galgudug were Robow has been deploying hundreds of troops during the last few weeks, preparing for an offensive on ASWJ's capital: Dhusa Mareb which happens to be Aweys' home town, (note: ASWJ itself is an alliance of the Dir clan, the Marehan, Darod sub-clan and the Habar Gidir, Hawiye sub-clan, active in Galgudug) ) and JABISO leader Hayle's Digil clan (Lower Shabelle) + the merge gives Robow's faction, which is more powerfull in East Mogadishu, control in north-Mogadishu (while Godane's faction remains the most powerfull in the North-West, the South-West being the TFG's last area).
Meanwhile, Ahmed Abdi Godane, who's Isaaq Clan (which has most of the important leadership positions in Godane's faction, and thus in all of HSM they have the top positions (to the anger of Robow and others), because Godane was Amir) is mainly located in the breakaway region of Somaliland and thus has almost no involvement in the Somali-Civil War, is left completely isolated.



Dispute over Aweys
Triggered by the death of one of Robow's commanders, the power struggle became more serious, Godane's commanders were arrested in Robow's group Kisimayo, meanwhile mid-level Hizbul Islam commanders were eliminated by Godane to prevent Robow from gaining to much power. The dispute now went about Aweys' position.
Robow favoured an agreement in which Aweys remains a significant leader and can command his own militia in the central region, to gain support of his clan and thus help Robow from capturing Dhusa Mareb and from eliminating HSM's main adversary: ASWJ. Also note that Aweys, the father of the Somali Islamism, was a mentor to many significant Islamist leader (Adan Eyrow, Sharif Ahmed, Hassan Turki), including Abu Mansoor (Mukther Robow's nickname).
Meanwhile Godane thought that Aweys' carrear as Islamist leader of importance should be over. His ICU was a failure, after which he fled to Eritrea to lead the political opposition and HSM did all the fighting. HI was a failure to and after it's defeat. He wanted all HI troops to be retrained and asyimilated in existing HSM units, just like happened to those of the Ras Kamboni Brigades which followed their leader Hasan Turki to al-Shabaab.

Result of Al-Shabaab (HSM) conference
As result of all this, on 25 December, 2010, Harakat al-Shabaab Mujahedeen held a conference where all it's senior figures decided the future of the organisation. It seems that Sheikh Mukhtar Robow has benefited the most.

New Amir: As result of the power struggle Ahmed Abdi Godane was removed as Amir and replaced by Ibrahim "al-Afghani" (who despite his name, like Hassan "al-Turki" is not a Turk, is not an Afghan). Ibrahim "al-Afghani" was the governor of HSM's administration in Kisimayo, HSM's administrative capital. So he had a very important and influential position. Choosing him was a compromise, 'cause although he is more friendly towards Mukthar Robow, than Godane was, he is also a member of Godane's Isaaq Clan, and just like Godane (and most Isaaq), comes from Somaliland.

Note: Although both Mukhtar Robow and Ahmed Abdi Godane still have major influence over parts of the organisation (even now Godane isn't Amir anymore), the organisation is not clearly split up in a Robow faction and a Godane faction, with all members and commanders being loyal to either one of them.

Other positions given:

Mukhtar Robow (Abu Mansoor) - Bay region & Bakool Region
Hassan Dahir Aweys - Central Region
Hassan Abdullah Hersi "al-Turki" - Jubbaland (incl. Kisimayo)
Moktar Ali Zubey" (Ahmad Abdi "Godane") - Somaliland
Fuad Mohamed Qalaf "Shangole" - Puntland
Ali Mohammad Raghe "Dheere" & Fazul Abdullah Mohammed - Mogadishu & surrounding areas

So Robow has Bay, Bakool and with Turki and Aweys, the South and Central regions of the country. Meanwhile Shangole (Robow ally), who hails from Puntland is in charge of HSM operations in Puntland. Godane lost out big-time, he is now in charge of operations in Somaliland, which is not under HSM controll, neither is there an active insurgency.

In Mogadishu there is a compromise, with Ali Dheere being pro-Mukthar Robow (he also appointed him as his successor as spokesman) and Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, a foreign leaer, is an ally of Godane.


^^The black line represents the border between HSM controlled part of Somalia and the part outside of their controll (Somaliland, Puntland, Galmudug, ASWJ, Ximan & Xeeb), the district of Dolow (South-West) is still under Ethiopian occupation and is therefore coloured that way

[Kermanshahan]

^^Above post was from January 2010

If you look at evolvement of per-group control from 2008-2010:


Developments since then is that Ugandan, Ethiopian and Kenyan forces have launched major offensives into Somalia, against al-Shabaab, the Ethiopians gaining ground in Gedo, the Kenyans in Jubba and the Ugandans in Moqadishu. However, HSM uses similar tactics to the Taliban in this regard, when foreign armies attack, they usually withdraw rather than going into an open battle and by moving strategicaly withing their territory they try to avoid casualties and wear their enemy down. Therefore their early territorial losses (due to some withdraws) in these areas

[Kermanshahan]

Harakat al-Shabaab Mujahideen military breakdown (November 20, 2010)

Figures were released by HSM on their military strength and break-down per clan.

4,230 Rahanwein (mainly fom Digil and Mirifle sub-clans) - This is the clan of Sheikh Mukhtar Robow, so we can see that he has the largest military backing within HSM, which makes him one of it's most powerfull commanders. This clan comes mainly from the Bay and Bakool regions but their fighters are also active in Mogadishu

3,106 Darod (mainly from Ogaden and Marehan sub-clans) - The number of Darod's in HSM greatly increased after Sheikh Hasan "Turki" and his Ras Kamboni Brigades joined the group, since he is an Ogaden and his group was mainly comprised of Ogaden fighters. They are mainly from Juba regions of South-West Somalia.

2,401 Hawiyeh (mainly Duduble and Murursade) - This was HSM's main clan prior to the other two increasing so much. Hawiya is also Somalia's largest clan. It is the clan of Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, who joined the group 1 month later. Hizbul Islam fighters were mainly Hawiye so since the merge Hawiye numbers have likely increased by atleast 1,000. The Hawiye are mainly from Central Somalia.

1,702 Isaaq - This is the clan of Ahmed Abdi "Godane", it is mainly located in Somaliland so it is surprising to see such large numbers of their clan in HSM. It is somewhat suspicious and explains some concerns by Puntland and the TFG, who accused Somaliland of backing HSM. 753 of them belong to Godane's own sub-clan, the rest are also mainly loyal to him.

1,005 Minor Clans - HSM as a true multi-clan movement has fighters from all over Somalia. The small clans are thus also represented in large numbers in the group. Majority of these 1,005 fighters are farmers and students recruited from Southern Somalia. It is also always said HSM is the largest public backing in the South.

1,982 Foreign Fighters - The foreign fighters are mainly loyal to Godane, they include some of HSM's best trained fighters since many are mujahideen veterans from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Iraq and to a lesser extent Chechnya, Bosnia, Kosovo. Over 80% of the foreign fighters are however ethnic Somalis from the Somali diaspora (only a small number being actual foreigners), their loyalto to Godane leads me to believe many are likely from Isaaq Clan.

Total: 14,426 fighters from all clans and from all over the country

Breakdown in percantages:
Rahanwein: 29%
Darod: 22%
Hawiye: 17%
Foreigners: 13%
Isaaq: 12%
Other: 7%

Note: This was prior to the HI-HSM merge, which led to around 1-2 thousand, mainly Hawiya HI fighters joining HSM

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[HEAVEN]

Shall i post the information about usa drone strikes here?

[Kermanshahan]

You can do that, but remember that the USA drones strikes are mainly assasinations against al-Qaeda and sometimes an al-Shabaab commander (like Adan Eyrow) but they are not of much relevance to the actual conflict (also because al-Qaeda is not a relevant military force), so you must remember that drone strikes are not the main point of the article.

Anyway, for anyone interested, a good place to read updates on the situation in Somalia is here: allAfrica.com: Somalia

[HEAVEN]

Okay, i will put news here about the usa drone if it is something big, because i dont want to swarm this thread with alot of news.
cheers.

[Kemji]

Kerman, i am very very curious about possible Iranian/QF action in Somalia. Is there any action with QF in SOmalia? Please inform me of what you about this.

Good job tracking the warring Somali factions areas...that country looks really really messed up.

[Kermanshahan]

Kerman, i am very very curious about possible Iranian/QF action in Somalia. Is there any action with QF in SOmalia? Please inform me of what you about this.

Good job tracking the warring Somali factions areas...that country looks really really messed up.

During 2006 ICU period there were allegations that many Islamic countries, even pro-Western states like Egypt and Jordan had been supporting the Islamists, including Iran. In 2006 Lebanon War, Sheikh Aweys is said to have sent 800 fighters to Lebanon and during the 2009-2010 Sa'dah War there were allegations of Harakat al-Shabaab Mujahedeen fighters being deployed to Yemen to fight alongside the Houthis. Currently al-Shabaab is being funded by Eritrea, which has Iranian ties and are used by Iran to supply the Houthis, however openly Iran has been supportive of the TFG since Sharif Ahmed became President and as far as I know there have been no allegations of direct links between Iran or Quds Force with HSM.

[Kemji]

During 2006 ICU period there were allegations that many Islamic countries, even pro-Western states like Egypt and Jordan had been supporting the Islamists, including Iran. In 2006 Lebanon War, Sheikh Aweys is said to have sent 800 fighters to Lebanon and during the 2009-2010 Sa'dah War there were allegations of Harakat al-Shabaab Mujahedeen fighters being deployed to Yemen to fight alongside the Houthis. Currently al-Shabaab is being funded by Eritrea, which has Iranian ties and are used by Iran to supply the Houthis, however openly Iran has been supportive of the TFG since Sharif Ahmed became President and as far as I know there have been no allegations of direct links between Iran or Quds Force with HSM.

Thanks for that update.Intelligence on that region seems a bit murky...